continuation betting
i have a dilemma. i'm finding more and more that my continuation bets are being put to the test. i could understand if i made this move on a regular basis but i don't which puzzles me even more.
now after a preflop raise in a late position and a flop that is checked to you a continuation bet, or follow through show of strength is a pretty standard play. there is a 67% chance that you will miss the flop so when you do, and especially when its a ragged flop, you would still expect to be ahead. so in goes the bet, and then all of a sudden you are check raised! wtf! what could this guy have, pocket pair? or is he just making a move? i find it extremely hard to judge where i stand and i was wondering what the consensus was on this?
to illustrate i have an example from tonight. what do you do? i called the re-raise and folded the turn. waste of money as i knew i would fold but...
1) what would you do in this situation on either the initial flop re-raise or the bet on the turn?
2) and what would you put him on?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)
MP1 ($24.15)
MP2 ($24.05)
MP3 ($22.60)
CO ($21.80)
Hero ($24.40) Button
SB ($26.55)
BB ($35)
UTG ($5.50)
UTG+1 ($14.40)
Preflop: Hero is Button with As, Kc.
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Button raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, MP2 calls $1.
Flop: ($3.85) 7h, Td, 5c (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Button bets $1.25, BB folds, MP2 raises to $3.25, Hero calls $2.
Turn: ($10.35) 4d (2 players)
MP2 bets $4.5, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $10.35
please, any feedback would be massively appreciated
5 comments:
Don't really like the 5xraise, unless that is your usual raise amount. If you normally raise 3 or four times, what is your five times raise telling the table? I have A-K or maybe J-J?
Having done that, you must have been worried about two callers, one of which may well have been slow playing A-A or K-K pre-flop.
Having said that, I agree with your continuation bet, but once you are check-raised, you have to let go. You have only ace high, so what are you calling the check-raise for? Only to hit a K or an A and even then you may still be behind. The best you could hope for is that you are up against A-10.
Either they have the overpair or have hit sets-ville IMO
Seymour, i see you asked Amatay for details on rake etc, dont worry i'm not some kind of salesman, i'm Rob who has been helping him, and i played against you in one of the bloggerments (probably wont remember) get in touch if you need help with ur poker etc - just leave a comment on my blog
Hi Simon,
You are right, dunno why i called the check raise, waste of money and if I did hit an ace or a king i'd probably lose my whole stack over it.
i guess there really isn't anything i can do in this position. i either give him credit and walk away or put my stack on the line hoping he's making a move.
thanks for the advice, defo food for thought. need to be a bit more cognisant of what i'm telling the table rather than just thinking about what they are telling me.
Rob - will pop by your blog late, thanks for the post and the offer of help, very much appreciated.
seymour
Hey nice blog, good to read someone who is playing at similar levels to me.
I am having the exact same problem with my continuation bets. However, I then tend to re-pop it far too much just because I think I could be getting bluffed. Major leak in my game at the mo....
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