commitment threshold
i've been reading an interesting article on pot commitment and a players commitment threshold and have to say i think its probably one of my biggest leaks.
i often find that i'm dropping between 10-15% of my stack to see a turn card, which in nl25 is only a dollar raise pre flop and a pot size bet on the flop. so as you can see a very easy place to find yourself.
the article goes on to explain that whenever you commit or know you will have to commit more than 10% of your stack, that you have a plan in place before you do so. this plan should basically be the way you want to play the hand.
for example, say you call a raise from the cut off with k/jo and hit a jack high flop (js/10h/6s). this is great for you, your opponent checks and you bet the pot and your opponent calls. the turn is 7h and your opponent checks again. what do you do here?
the commitment threshold states that you have put in over 10% of your stack so you need to decide whether you are willing to go all in here. is top pair, second kicker a hand you are willing to go all in with?
you're probably thinking, why on earth would i consider going all in, well imagine you bet the pot again and your opponent check raises you. now you are in an extremely tough position, you could be facing either of two flush draws, a straight draw, a combo draw, set or even an overpair and you have committed over a third of your stack ($1 dollar preflop to call the raise, c. $2 pot bet on the flop then c. $6 pot bet on the turn with $25 effective stack)
folding after investing over a third of your effective stack here is a mistake, and getting yourself into this position is also a mistake and a leak.
an effective plan to deal with this situation could be keeping the pot as small as possible. the bet on the flop is fine but the bet on the turn can lead you into trouble, a check behind gives you a chance to avoid running into a flush or a straight depending on what falls on the river and should both draws miss you hopefully entice your opponent to bluff off chips which you can safely call at a reduced risk to your total stack.
what do you guys think? i've never looked at planning a hand in this way but running through the examples in the article it makes perfect sense.
any comments welcome
